Why Saudi Investment Has Not Transformed Newcastle into Title Contenders

The Newcastle manager is not prone to histrionics or sweeping media pronouncements. Based on his standards, his media briefing following the weekend's 3-1 defeat qualifies as a furious tirade. Newcastle scored first but West Ham took the lead by the interval, while also striking the woodwork and having a penalty overturned by VAR, leading Howe to make a triple change at the half-time.

“The opening period was particularly irritating,” the coach said. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I think that was a reflection of where we were in that moment during the match and it's extremely uncommon for me to have that impression. Actually, I don’t think I have since I’ve been head coach of Newcastle, therefore I believed the team needed a significant change at half-time. This explains why I made what I did.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth all came off at the interval and the team did stabilise somewhat in the second half, but never really looking like they could fight back into the game against a side that had won only one of their previous nine league matches. Given how packed the middle of the table is, with a mere three-point gap separating the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between second and 17th, a run of 12 points from ten matches has not placed Newcastle stranded but, similarly, they must not end the campaign in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Expectations

The challenge to an extent is one of public view. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle have the richest backers in the globe. The assumption when the PIF acquired 80% of the club in 2021 was that it would have a game-changing impact, similar to the former Chelsea owner achieved at Stamford Bridge or the City Group had at Manchester City. The distinction is that those two investors took over before the advent of financial fair play rules (and the ongoing allegations against City relate to whether they violated those guidelines once they were implemented).

Profit and sustainability restrictions limit the ability of proprietors, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their teams and so in that sense likely might have hindered any Saudi attempt to elevate the team to the standard of City. However there is no need for the club's spending to have been so restrained as it has; they might have spent more and remained within the threshold – or simply taken a fairly minor European penalty given their major problem is more with the continental than the Premier League rules.

Stadium Spending and Financial Regulations

Besides which, infrastructure spending is excluded from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the easiest way to increase revenue to generate additional financial headroom would be to expand or renovate the arena. Considering the site of the home ground, with protected structures on two sides, in reality that probably means building an entirely new venue. Rumors circulated in spring of potentially undertaking the nearby relocation to a local park – resistance from community organizations could surely have been surmounted with a commitment to build a new park on the existing stadium site – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has occurred substantial retrenchment from the PIF on a range of initiatives as it refocuses on local investments; the attitude to Newcastle seems entirely in keeping with that change of approach.

Player Sales Saga

The Alexander Isak saga was arose from that conflict. A bolder leadership could have framed his sale as necessary to free up capital for additional spending; rather there was a vain effort to keep him. This resulted in the team began the season amid a sense of frustration despite the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: a single victory in their initial six fixtures.

Yet it seemed a corner was reached. They secured five victories in six matches prior to Sunday, a run that included convincing wins of a Belgian side and Benfica in the Champions League. This explains the performance against the Hammers was such a shock. The issue perhaps is that Newcastle’s style is extremely intense, high-energy; a slight drop-off in energy can have profound consequences. Maybe the strain of domestic, Champions League and cup competition, five fixtures in a fortnight, had got to them. The German forward started all five games and appeared particularly fatigued.

The Nature of Modern Football

This is the nature of modern football. Managers have to be prepared to rotate. Howe has been unlucky that Wissa’s injury has meant he is lacking forward choices but, no matter how valid the reasons, the weekend's showing was unacceptable –especially after scoring first at a ground ready to criticize its home team.

The Newcastle boss will wish it was just a blip, one of those days when everybody is off-colour simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to secure the Champions League next season, not to mention one day launch an genuine title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as they have been.